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The world has been steadily warming for decades, but a sudden and extraordinary surge in temperatures has pushed the climate into uncharted territory—leaving scientists puzzled about the underlying causes.
Over the past two years, global temperature records have been shattered repeatedly by an unprecedented streak of warming, defying even the most advanced climate predictions.
While there is consensus that burning fossil fuels has been the primary driver of long-term global warming, with natural climate variability influencing year-to-year fluctuations, the factors behind this exceptional heat spike remain under scrutiny.
Some experts suggest that changes in cloud patterns, air pollution levels, and Earth’s carbon storage capacity could be contributing factors. However, it may take another year or two to gain a clearer understanding.
“Warming in 2023 was head-and-shoulders above any other year, and 2024 will be as well,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “I wish I knew why, but I don’t,” he admitted. Schmidt emphasized that scientists are still analyzing whether this marks a shift in the climate system’s behavior.
Unprecedented Heat
The burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which trap heat near Earth’s surface. Rising emissions, which hit record highs in 2023, have contributed to a steady, decades-long warming trend.
However, between June 2023 and September 2024, global temperatures reached levels never seen before, according to the World Meteorological Organization—sometimes by significant margins. This extreme heat has made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years on record.
Richard Allan, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, described this record-breaking warmth as propelling the planet “well into uncharted territory.” Meanwhile, climatologist Sonia Seneviratne of ETH Zurich noted that while the long-term warming trend is unsurprising given continued fossil fuel use, the intensity of this heat surge challenges existing climate models.
Challenges in Explanation
Some scientists point to natural climate variability as a partial explanation. The years leading up to 2023 were dominated by a rare, three-year La Niña event that cooled the planet by transferring heat into deep ocean layers. When La Niña transitioned to a warming El Niño in mid-2023, global temperatures spiked.
Yet, even after El Niño peaked in early 2024, temperatures have remained stubbornly high. November 2024 was the second-warmest month on record, and the expected cooling trend has not materialized.
“It is difficult to explain this at the moment,” said Robert Vautard of the UN’s climate panel, IPCC. “We lack a bit of perspective. If temperatures don’t drop significantly in 2025, we’ll need to seriously investigate the causes.”
Searching for Clues
Scientists are exploring several theories. One hypothesis links accelerated warming to a 2020 global mandate for cleaner shipping fuels, which reduced sulphur emissions that had previously helped reflect sunlight.
Another possibility is a reduction in low-lying clouds, which could allow more heat to reach Earth’s surface. These theories, along with others involving solar cycles and volcanic activity, were the focus of discussions at a recent American Geophysical Union conference.
Concerns are growing that without a complete understanding, scientists may be overlooking deeper, transformational changes in the climate system.
“We cannot rule out other factors that may have amplified these temperatures. The verdict is still out,” Seneviratne said.
Troubling Signs
In 2023, researchers warned that Earth’s natural carbon sinks—forests and oceans that absorb CO2—were weakening at unprecedented rates. The Arctic tundra, which had locked away carbon for millennia, is now emitting more CO2 than it stores.
Meanwhile, oceans, long regarded as a critical climate regulator, are warming at rates scientists cannot fully explain. Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has raised alarms about a potential loss of the planet’s resilience.
“Could this be the first sign of Earth reaching a tipping point? We cannot exclude it,” Rockström said.
Dj Vnyash
