Most CEOs are not optimistic about job creation in the country for the coming year, with many anticipating stable employment levels. According to a recent survey, nearly a third (31.3%) of manufacturers reduced full-time positions in the three months leading up to November 2024.
The survey, conducted by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), also revealed that employment in the service sector remained stable in the third quarter of 2024, while agricultural employment dropped due to the short rains and the seasonal nature of farming.
Respondents expect slower economic growth in 2024 compared to 2023, though they believe it will still be resilient, supported by a stable macroeconomic environment and strong performance in agriculture and services. Despite some job growth in the service sector, half of the businesses reported declining sales due to weak demand and high operational costs.
The CBK study, conducted in November among private sector CEOs, also highlighted that 56.3% of manufacturers cut production due to reduced sales, leading to a decrease in staffing. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle with high operational costs, taxes, liquidity constraints, and lower consumer demand.
Looking ahead to 2025, the job outlook varies significantly between banks and non-bank private companies. While 72% of banks expect to hire more employees, only 43% of non-bank firms share the same outlook. Banks are optimistic due to branch expansions, new product launches, and the need to fill key positions. On the other hand, non-banks are facing challenges such as high operational costs and reduced output, which are limiting their hiring capabilities.
Sectors like retail, hospitality, and construction are particularly affected, with many firms citing high taxes and weak consumer demand as key barriers to hiring. Additionally, the increasing use of ICT and automation is reducing the need for manual labor, further hindering employment growth.
Temporary hiring is expected to rise during the festive season, especially in hospitality and retail, but this will likely be short-term, with no long-term employment stability expected due to ongoing challenges. In the manufacturing sector, nearly half (43.4%) of CEOs foresee reduced growth in the next 12 months, making it the sector with the lowest growth expectations. Only 23.1% of manufacturing CEOs expect growth.