Silverio Omari
The latest report indicates that most parts of the country will experience intermittent cloudiness, with daytime temperatures expected to range between 22°C and 27°C. Nighttime temperatures are forecasted to range from 12°C to 15°C.
The Highlands east of the Rift Valley, including counties such as Nairobi, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Nairobi, are likely to experience cloudiness in the morning, followed by sunny intervals for the remainder of the day. However, occasional afternoon and nighttime showers may occur in some mountainous regions during the early part of the forecast period.
The report also notes a significant decrease in rainfall over the past two weeks across most parts of the country. The highest seven-day rainfall total of 89.5mm was recorded at the Kanyangwa station in Kilifi County, while the Miyare station in Migori County recorded the highest 24-hour rainfall total of 47.6mm on December 2.
John Muiruri, Nyeri County’s Director of Meteorological Services, confirmed that the weather agency had provided essential information to local stakeholders prior to the onset of the short rains. This information was vital for farmers, helping them to plan their planting schedules and choose the right crops.
“The October-November-December rains arrived as expected,” Muiruri said. “We had issued weather advisories in advance and recommended planting fast-maturing crops. Farmers who followed this advice may still have a harvest, but those who planted crops that take longer to mature will face significant losses.”
Earlier in October, Muiruri predicted that the short rains would begin in the third week of the month, with a normal start before shifting to more irregular rainfall in mid-December. A weather outlook report from the Kenya Meteorological Department dated September 30 had anticipated the short rains would start between the fourth week of October and the first week of November in Eastern regions, and in the third to fourth weeks of October for Central Kenya, including Nairobi. However, the rainfall totals for October were expected to be close to or slightly above average, with an uneven distribution and periods of dry spells.
Farmers are now concerned about a failed harvest, as many had already planted their crops. There are fears that any rainfall after October may be insufficient, as crops like maize require at least two months of consistent rainfall.
“We expected rain around October 25, but things have changed. If it doesn’t rain in the coming days, I fear I may lose my entire bean crop,” said Mary Wachira, a farmer from Gatitu village, who had planted beans on her 10-acre farm. She is grateful for a successful maize harvest last season but remains anxious about the current situation.
Charles Chege, a farmer from Gathuthi village in Othaya sub-county, also expressed concerns about his crops, as many young plants are already wilting. “We planted early, hoping the rains would arrive on time as predicted, but now our hopes are fading. I am worried about the future,” he said.
Lordman Lekakul, the Central National Drought Management Authority coordinator, emphasized the need for alternative farming strategies to cope with unpredictable weather patterns. He predicted that this rainy season would likely be below normal, urging farmers to plant fast-maturing or drought-tolerant crops instead of long-growing varieties like maize.
“This season will likely be disappointing, with little to celebrate in terms of harvest,” he said, adding that a food crisis would only occur after two consecutive failed rainy seasons.
Dj Vnyash
