Poll Shows Main Opposition Leader in Ghana Favored to Win Presidential Vote.

Ghana’s main opposition leader, John Dramani Mahama, appears poised for victory in December’s presidential election, according to an opinion poll released Monday, placing him ahead of his main opponent, ruling party candidate Muhamudu Bawumia.

Mahama, 65, a former president, and Bawumia, 60, the current Vice President, are the primary contenders for the December 7 election to succeed President Nana Akufo-Addo, who will step down in January after completing two terms as leader of the cocoa- and gold-producing nation. The race also includes eleven other candidates.

Poll results published by Accra-based research group Global InfoAnalytics showed Mahama leading with 52%, followed by Bawumia with 41.3%, with a margin of error of 1.9%. Key issues for voters include the economy, jobs, education, and infrastructure.

During his 2012–2017 presidency, Mahama prioritized infrastructure investment, though his administration faced criticism over power shortages, economic challenges, and corruption allegations—though Mahama himself was not directly implicated. He now seeks to return as the candidate for the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Bawumia, an economist and former central banker, represents the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), which has recently faced Ghana’s most severe economic crisis in decades.

Both candidates have proposed economic plans to improve living standards and revive growth.

In 2022, Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, defaulted on most of its $30 billion external debt after years of high borrowing. President Akufo-Addo’s government subsequently secured a $3 billion, three-year bailout from the International Monetary Fund in 2023 and is now completing the process to meet disbursement conditions.

The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasted an NDC victory in October, citing the NPP’s economic record, a sentiment echoed by Fitch Solutions.

Both Mahama and Bawumia hail from northern Ghana, traditionally an NDC stronghold where the NPP has recently gained support.

Political analyst Alidu Seidu of the University of Ghana noted the contest will likely be close, with a run-off possible.

Historically, no party in Ghana’s democracy has won more than two consecutive terms.